Sunday, 15 May 2016

Dividend Capture - How to Get Paid Twice

Investopedia defines dividend capture strategy as an investment technique that focuses on quickly capturing the dividend issued by a corporation, without intending to hold the investment over a long period of time. To understand how this works you need to know what ex dividend is. Again Investopedia defines  as when declared dividend belongs to the seller rather than the buyer.
Compare two monthly dividend paying stocks

Northview REIT It pays a monthly dividend of 13.5 cents a share and goes ex dividend on the 24th of each month.

XIE (ishares dividend ETF) pays a monthly dividend of 8 cents a share and goes ex dividend on the 27th of each month.

So in theory I could buy Northview on the 24th, sell it on the 25th, buy XIE on the 26th and sell it on the 27th and collect dividends on both. Doing this would increasing my income by 60% a year with minimal risk.

OK what’s the catch. While it’s quite simple. The price could drop after I bought meaning I would sell it at a loss. So it’s important that you do this only with stocks that you’re prepared to hold for the long term. Both the afore mentioned stocks dropped some 25% in the bear market of 2015. So you really want to do this with stocks you like.






Wednesday, 20 April 2016

Bought a new Watch

I recently bought the wife a new watch. Her old one, after 10 good years of use, bit the dust. Based on recommendations of several good friends and the fact I had some decent stock gains we decided to go for a quality name that can last a life time. Looked at Tag Heuer and but both of us agreed they were too gaudy for a lady. I’m not a watch wearer so I don’t care but for her she wanted understated elegance. In the end we So I bought her a beautiful Longines ladies watch. Looking at how to pay for this I decided it was more tax efficient to sell some stocks than to take money from our savings (more on that next post). The only problem was the particular stocks I wanted to sell were in a retirement account that I can’t access at the moment*. So I needed to figure out a way to journal them over to my non registered account without taking a big tax hit.

How I Approached it:

Sold some shares in my non registered account and used that money to buy the watch. Sell an equivalent amount of stocks, specifically ones that had increased in price from my retirement account and repurchase the stocks I sold in my non registered account. This had the effect of journaling them over.
As I was sitting capital losses from my Potash trade I was able to offset the gains I made here resulting in a tax efficient sale

Update:

At the moment I haven’t sold any of my Bank of Nova Soctia (TSX:BNS) shares as I feel they are still undervalued and the Dream Global (TSX:DRG.UN) are under a bit of downward pressure at the moment.
I will forgo a small amount of dividends but I willing to do that as I expect to make more from capital gains. If I’m wrong I’m still collecting dividends from BNS.

*not without taking a huge tax hit


Sunday, 3 April 2016

How to escape the two income trap in 6 easy steps

This from Financial Samurai (FS)

I can tell you for a fact that we are DYING at $500,000 per year. I’m struggling to make a new business venture work and grow it to multiple locations so we can eek out a retirement before my anesthesiologist wife cries herself to death. Knowing that we’re not alone helps, but now I need to gain control of a situation we let fall apart.

- See more at: http://www.financialsamurai.com/scraping-by-on-500000-a-year-high-income-earners-struggling/#sthash.veKO9GEK.dpuf

I know what you’re thinking, 500 grand a year and they’re struggling, well cry me a river. Two things to keep in mind, one is to reach that level of income means you have a high end high stress job. Secondly the nature of such a job means you tend to live the lifestyle earn more spend more is pretty much the rule. Breaking that cycle (earn more spend more) isn’t easy but here are 6 steps

  • Know your numbers
  • Trade TV time for blog reading time
  • Don’t trade time for money
  • Play to your strengths
  • Structural deficits
  • Calculate pension and work your way back
Know your numbers Sam’s done a good job of breaking the numbers down but everyone is different so first step it to get YNAB (or similar program) and start tracking your spending. Again from Financial Samurai

We shop at TJMaxx, buy second hand lacrosse gear for my son, use Amazon Prime despite protestations from local businesses to “shop local.” We can’t afford to!!! -
To be honest people aren’t as efficient with their money as they like to think. It’s not till you see the hard numbers that reality hits home. For me it showed that I spent a lot more on entertainment that I thought!

Trade TV time for blog reading time, Whatever your situation, stressed out Mom, deep in debt student, struggling one income family there are people out there who have lived this and come out the other side. Many of them blog about the struggles encountered the successes they’ve had. They do this with the idea that you too can find success the way they did. My lifeline many years ago was The Simple Dollar.

Don’t trade time for money.  Earning more doesn't always mean having more. The thing is when you have two high income high stress jobs you have little time for anything else. Since I’ve stopped working I’ve had the time and energy to be more efficient with our money. Not only that but we travel far more on one income than when we had two incomes. A direct result of having the time to find deals and bargains.

Play to your strengths. To be completely truthful I am not the most Mustachian of people. I've never been terrible successful in the “no shopping no spending” department. But that's OK because what I am really good at is managing my money As the old saying goes “I stretch my money till it screams”. Everybody has different strengths and weaknesses. Work on your strengths and strengthen your weaknesses.

Structural deficits (fixed payments and costs) It’s pretty easy to ditch the iphone but it’s far tougher to ditch the mortgage payment. Well the average American/Canadian moves or switches jobs every 5 years or so. It’s at that point that you have an opportunity to change things. When we lived in Madrid we lived way out in the country and even to go shopping was a 70K round trip. When we moved to Munich we were sure to move into an area where we could walk bike everywhere. We went from 2 tanks a week to less than one a month. Second advantage less mileage means the car holds its value better.

Calculate pension and work your way back Perhaps it’s because I’m a baby boomer but pensions and retirement loom large to me. Biggest concern is if I’ll have enough to retire on. While this is huge subject I’m just doing to touch on it. Using YNAB numbers I was able to calculate the minimum amount I needed so I didn’t have to live under a bridge. Thankfully that amount is less than my basic pension entitlement. So any extra savings are an added bonus!

It's not easy but it is possible and very rewarding to escape the 2 income trap. 


Monday, 28 March 2016

Cynical vs Non Cyclical Stocks

Note: By cyclical I’m referring to resource stocks rather than the technical definition which is stocks that rise and fall with the economy, say car stocks for example.

I’ve had this discussion with various buy and hold bloggers and the issue is that investors tend not to distinguish between cynical and non cynical stocks.

Cynical stocks are driven nearly 100% by commodity prices and herd mentality. You get in, take your profits and leave. There is very little a company can do to increase earnings when  commodity prices are depressed.

Non cynical stocks, and this is the part that really matters are more suited to buy and hold investors. Short term you see price volatility due to herd mentality. Sectors fall in and out of favour giving you opportunities to pick up a stock at a better price. Take banks as an example. Prices are (were) quite depressed so bargain hunters started shopping driving prices up but at some point the housing bubble is going scare off investors off leading to a major sell off. Prices will drop but unlike the resource sector dividends and yields will continue to rise and the whole cycle will repeat itself giving the astute investor an opportunity to profit.

But what about Manulife you say?


In this case it has less to do with cynical vs non cynical but rather a poorly run business. The company ran into problems had to cut the dividend and the stock price simply tanked. While they did restructure and eventually return to profitability the stock price has never recovered. I wrote about Manulife here.


Friday, 25 March 2016

Linamar (LNR) moving beyond the safe world of bank stocks

I’m slowly in the process of expanding my investing horizons. Up to this point I’ve always stuck with tried and true solid blue chip dividend stocks with a higher dividend yield.  While I have done quite well I’ve noticed two problems. First the upside is generally limited and secondly in taking profits it be hard to find where to re-invest profits.  On the first point Intact Financial is a great example 2% yield but up 100% in the last 3 years. The second point I only buy stocks that are undervalued and when you investing universe is only 15 stocks it’s hard to find any. What I did was to sign up for several premium newsletters (more on that in a later post).

Linamar

This stock came up on my radar thanks to Canadian Dividend Growth Investor
over at  Seeking Alpha. Yield under 1% so normally it wouldn’t show up on my stock screeners. To quote his summary. 

Why I like this stock

·       Linamar is priced at a cheap multiple of 8.6 and it just reported double-digit growth in its sales and earnings for Q4 and 2015 overall.
  • Discounted by 35%. Upside potential of 50%.
  • Exceptional business performance expected to continue.
  • Strong balance sheet.
Again let me insert a Fastgraphs chart. This is what I like to call a classic Fastgraphs chart, steady as she goes earnings and then kaboom the earnings take off (ignoring 2008)


 Now if we insert the price you can see that it is clearly undervalued at the moment. BTW if you look a bit and you can see what happens when a stock is overvalued. Sure you get a dividend but a 40% price drop, ouch!

























Second chart is earnings growth (which drives the stock price) and normal PE ratio and the price should the stock return to it's historical PE ratio



























As you can see the potential 50% price gain more than makes up for the low yield. Now before I go out and put down my hard earned savings I do have a few thoughts/questions.

1. Does earnings drive the stock price?

This is the underlying theory behind Fastgraphs. You find a strong company that for whatever reason the market is ignoring. This could be because the sector is out of favour - this happened during the tech bubble. The company could have had problems and have recovered, Manulife after 2008. It could be just a bear market. Knowing this will help you decide when to buy and how much to buy.

2. Can the stock really go higher?

This was Microsoft back in it’s heyday. It was a hot growth stock I remember one analyst who was following the stock never bought it because it always felt expensive and simply couldn’t go any higher. Needless to say this was a 10 bagger stock. Currently Facebook feels the same way.

3. The lower the price the more the opportunity for it to go up

This is the underlying theory behind Benj Gallander and Contra the Herd. A two dollar stock has a better chance of doubling than a fifty dollar stock


4.  Small dividend

This is probably my biggest concern as a dividend junkie, at 1% it’s peanuts. When I bought Manulife the healthy dividend was a fall back in case I got it wrong. 

Friday, 18 March 2016

Loblaws

Dividend Earner recently did a blog post about Loblaws because of the low yield I normally pay much mind to it but having looked at Intact Financial (IFC) and similar stocks I realized that in what they lack in yield they make up for in capital gains. Intact (IFC) is up nearly 100% since 2010.  Now Dividend Earner did a great job of the Loblaws stock metrics so I won’t repeat it here instead I’ll pull up a fast chart to see what it looks like. Now when buying a stock for capital appreciation it helps to keep in mind Benjamin Graham’s famous quote. "In the short term the stock market is a voting machine, long term it’s a weighing machine" . Basically earnings support the price. If The earnings aren’t there neither will the price. Pulling up Fast Graphs we can see that Loblaws is showing some strong earnings growth.



Add in the stock price (black line) and you can see a clear coloration between earnings and the price.

To Buy or not to Buy



Two issues show up. One specific to fastgraphs the other regarding long term earnings. On fastgraphs if you change the timeline the PE ratio (blue box right) changes and since this is the basis for making a decision it matters.


Second point is concern about growing earnings consistently. Manulife ran into problems around 2006 and the stock still haven’t recovered (down some 80%).

Price Growth:



Understand when buying a stock what you are actually buying is a company’s earnings growth. Too high of a valuation will cause you to earn less than the company's growth warrants, and a low valuation will cause you to earn more than the company's growth warrants. Valuation matters and few give it much thought. See the photo below.


Stocks like this can add substantially to your bottom line so at the moment if feels overvalued so I'll keep an eye on it but probably won't take a position at the moment. 

Tuesday, 8 March 2016

Potash (POT) A classic Value Trap


For any investor a bear market is tough. Nobody likes logging into their trading account and seeing it awash in red. Even worse is a bear market accompanied by a dividend cut.  So when Pot started dropping on fears of a dividend cut I had to make a decision on whether I was going to sell or not. So avoid making an emotional decision I looked at the fundamentals to see if anything had changed and secondly calculated what my ROI would be 2-3 years out.
On both accounts the numbers said screamed sell.

  • Potash is a commodity there is very little management can do to increase earnings until the price recovers.
  • Until that happens earnings along with the stock price and the dividend will stay mostly flat.
  • It will take roughly 13 years to make up for the loss (assuming the yield remains at 5%)

Potash is what you call a  classic value trap. You buy hoping beyond hope that it will one day recover. But as I wrote in my forth coming Canadian MoneySaver article, Hope is not a Strategy. Based on this analysis I sold at 22 a share. And Yes I took a substantial loss. I'll detail the lessons learned here in a later blog post.